The Fermi paradox and Drake equation: Where are all the aliens?
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What is the Drake equation?
The Drake equation is named after Frank Drake, an astronomer who in 1960 led the first official search for extraterrestrial radio signals at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia.
During a followup meeting with an eclectic group of thinkers at Green Bank in 1961 that included Planetary Society co-founder Carl Sagan, Drake introduced a formula that could conceivably calculate the number of civilizations currently transmitting signals out into the Milky Way:
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
N, the number of civilizations currently transmitting signals, depends on seven factors:
R* is the yearly formation rate of stars hospitable to planets where life could develop
fp is the fraction of those stars with planets
ne is the number of planets per solar system with conditions suitable for life
fl is the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually appears
fi is the fraction of planets with life on which intelligent life emerges
fc is the fraction of planets with intelligent life that develops technologies such as radio transmissions that we could detect
L is the average length of time in years that civilizations produce such signs
“The Drake Equation goes in order from easiest to hardest,” said Kaitlin Rasmussen, an astrophysicist at the University of Michigan. While variables like L remain purely speculative, scientists can now answer with some certainty things like average star formation rates in the Milky Way, and the fraction of stars with planets.
Although some researchers have tried to estimate the number of habitable planets using statistics, Rasmussen is hopeful that upcoming generations of large telescopes will allow us to peer into the atmospheres of Earth-sized planets, giving us better estimates on the number of planets per solar system with conditions suitable for life.
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